Something interesting has been quietly happening in the Best Supporting Actress category over the past months, as it's gone from a two-woman to a three-woman race -- and now, we think, a one-woman show. Brokeback Mountain's Michelle Williams has been garnering both audience empathy and critical honors in the movie that's the heavy Best Picture favorite, and Catherine Keener matched Philip Seymour Hoffman scene for scene in Capote (it helped that she appeared in three other movies this year: The 40 Year Old Virgin, The Interpreter and The Ballad of Jack and Rose); for a while, it seemed both were the actresses to beat.

But neither actress took home the Golden Globe (which Keener wasn't even nominated for) or the SAG award. It was Rachel Weisz of The Constant Gardener who came out the winner. The Globe win put her in the top tier with both Williams and Keener, and the SAG award solidly above them. Favored sentiment for the film, which garnered four Oscar noms, should make her the most likely award beneficiary -- and if Catherine Zeta-Jones is any indicator, being pregnant sure helps! (Weisz is about six months along.)

Frances McDormand is a great actress, and she melted the manipulative residue off her disease-stricken character in North Country, but we don't think she stands a chance. And we're very happy to see Amy Adams (Junebug) acknowledged -- a rare instance of stellar performer in a modest indie film getting recognized -- but she, too, isn't really in the running. But we bet she'll wear a great dress! As for the omissions, who do we have to bribe to get Scarlett Johansson (Match Point) an Oscar nomination?! After this and Lost in Translation, we hope there isn't a third snub -- we might have to start cracking skulls.

Our Pick: Though we'd be ecstatic if Keener or Williams walked off with the Oscar, we're planting our flag firmly in Rachel Weisz territory.