It is not possible to discuss on a movie FAQ page the technology and function of nuclear reactors and the possible results of any and all misfunctions. In an attempt to answer the question of whether the China syndrome could happen in real life, however, here is a note that was posted on The China Syndrome message board on 15 March 2007 explaining what would happen in the event of a real nuclear meltdown. As for anything posted anonymously on a wikisite, including this one, the information contained in this note has been unverified by experts. The contributor wrote:
Allow me to contribute. I'm a nuclear engineer employed by a vendor that designs, builds, and supports nuclear power plants. First of all, to clarify a point, the reactor still generates power after it has been shut down. Decay events continue even after the fission reactions have ceased, and these decay events account for about 10% of the power in the core. So a reactor that is shut down can more accurately be regarded (from a safety standpoint) as having been reduced to 10% power. This 10% power is, of course, comparatively low and it cannot trigger a "China syndrome" because there are no fission reactions generating neutrons.
There has never been any evidence that melted fuel would burn through the ground to the water table. That is more or less a theoretical worst case scenario that ignores many real-life factors. The reactor vessel in western plants is six inches thick and, being steel, dissipates heat very well. Even if every drop of water in the vessel were changed to steam and/or removed, it is still questionable whether or not the melted fuel would get through the vessel; even if it did, the process would be slow and would cool the fuel. If the fuel did make it to the floor, it certainly would not dig its way down through the concrete floor and into the Earth. The fuel does not have to come into contact with large amounts of water to cool. The "China syndrome" where the fuel goes all the way to the water table pretty much assumes that it does not cool at all on its way there and also that the ground offers little to no resistance to movement. Both of these assumptions do not reflect reality. In the real world, the fuel would likely cool and solidify on its surface, trapping the still-liquid fuel inside.
Three Mile Island unit 2 (TMI-2) suffered a partial meltdown of its core. The melted fuel (melted by the aforementioned decay heat) got through to the baffle on the outside of the inner core and came in contact with the outer shell of the reactor vessel. The vessel was not even close to being compromised -- the fuel in contact with the vessel solidifed like described above, and that solid fuel acted as insulation between the vessel and the liquid fuel. There is a huge amount of conservatism built into the structures at a nuclear power plant. TMI-2 proved the usefulness of this by undergoing one of the worst scenarios possible at an American plant (loss of secondary cooling, small-break LOCA, emergency core cooling shut off) without challenging the structural limits of the plant components.
The more likely scenario in the event of a runaway reaction is that the fuel would convert water to steam at a large enough rate to blow the vessel apart. This is what happened at Chernobyl -- the vessel (if it can be called that, RBMKs effectively do not have pressure vessels) was blown to pieces because of pressure resulting from an out of control core. As has been pointed out elsewhere in this thread, this is not possible in western reactors because they are built with negative moderator coefficients. This means the power level decreases as the temperature of the moderator increases. The American NRC will not even consider a design that has a positive moderator coefficient (like Chernobyl did), because such a design can undergo such a disaterous transient.
Even with all of this, one of the Generation III+ reactor designs -- the AREVA EPR, the first of which is currently under construction in Finland -- incorporates a core catcher. This structure catches and cools any waste, fuel, and debris that exits the vessel in the event of a "core on the floor" accident.